G
Forecasted Win Probability
Mary Peltola
Sullivan Jr. / Sullivan
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 55% fundamentals, 20% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 50.80% |
| Dan Sullivan | 49.20% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 47.00% |
| Dan Sullivan | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 4.00% |
| Gerald Heikes | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 44.00% |
| Mary Peltola | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mary Peltola | $18,545,132 | $13,908,377 | $69,894 | $2,860,561 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Mary Peltola | $15,575,539 | $9,480,668 | $6,081 | $1,649,564 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Dan Sullivan | $11,735,898 | $5,172,572 | $740,548 | $15,485 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Dan Sullivan | $11,100,596 | $3,528,652 | $327,969 | $15,485 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Dan Sullivan | $9,099,779 | $2,745,469 | $187,926 | $15,485 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Mary Peltola | $8,661,662 | $2,934,554 | $5,234 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
