G
Forecasted Win Probability
Amish Shah
Jay Feely
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Joanna Mendoza | 47.00% |
| Juan Ciscomani | 44.00% |
| Other | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jay Feely | 42.00% |
| Generic Democrat | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marlene Galan-Woods | 48.00% |
| Gina Swoboda | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas James Feely | $2,525,520 | $1,731,045 | $828,449 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
 Amish Shah | $1,830,193 | $1,520,251 | $97,183 | $286,404 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
| Thomas James Feely | $1,797,546 | $543,368 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
