G
Forecasted Win Probability
Eli Crane
Jonathan Nez
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 53.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 44.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Curtis Goodwin | 7.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eli Crane | $9,481,428 | $6,957,053 | $71,736 | $4,459 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
| Eli Crane | $7,449,412 | $5,443,960 | $59,562 | $373 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Jonathan Nez | $3,519,760 | $1,674,073 | $3,777 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/1/2026 |
| Jonathan Nez | $2,341,970 | $1,011,172 | $3,741 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
