G
Forecasted Win Probability
Tom Cotton*
Hallie Shoffner
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 51.00% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner | 47.40% |
| Tom Cotton | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 5.65% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 2.95% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 46.00% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Cotton | $13,601,049 | $10,066,117 | $748,351 | $8,523 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Tom Cotton | $12,773,972 | $9,383,840 | $748,351 | $8,523 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Hallie Shoffner | $2,269,114 | $1,405,536 | - | $1,877,376 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Hallie Shoffner | $1,589,764 | $1,011,034 | - | $1,279,162 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
