G
Forecasted Win Probability
Ashley Hinson
Josh Turek
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 53% fundamentals, 22% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Iowa US Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | |||
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| Hinson | |||
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How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | $23,009,662 | $16,375,336 | $2,534,551 | $536,861 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ashley Hinson | $20,949,833 | $15,074,985 | $975,316 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Josh Turek | $6,276,527 | $3,914,213 | $9,785,611 | $11,166 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Josh Turek | $3,463,099 | $2,736,689 | $9,767,625 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
| Joni K Ernst | $1,790,133 | $625,479 | $8,133 | $9 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2025 |
| Nathan Sage | $709,398 | $375,015 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2025 |
