G
Forecasted Win Probability
Ralph Alvarado
Zach Dembo
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Zach Dembo | 45.00% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 44.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Zach Dembo | 47.00% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 47.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado | 42.00% |
| Zach Dembo | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 19.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ralph Alvarado | $1,521,813 | $1,123,795 | $102,559 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Zach Dembo | $1,463,855 | $972,579 | $286,464 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ralph Alvarado | $1,175,185 | $720,018 | $58,500 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
| Zach Dembo | $956,430 | $678,140 | $286,464 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
