G
Forecasted Win Probability
Troy Jackson
Susan Collins*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 61% fundamentals, 14% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 48.00% |
| Susan Collins | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 49.00% |
| Susan Collins | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 49.00% |
| Susan Collins | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Platner | $21,050,419 | $19,287,361 | $372,440 | $9,230,161 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Susan Collins | $18,930,078 | $9,187,155 | $2,683,624 | $71,614 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Graham Platner | $16,312,222 | $14,131,391 | $4,343 | $4,014,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
| Susan Collins | $14,925,296 | $6,547,574 | $2,042,369 | $15,453 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
