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Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Aug 28, 2:24 PM
Christina Hines
Michael Bouchard
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Christina Hines | 44.00% |
| Mike Bouchard | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Bouchard | $1,414,724 | $456,493 | $156,740 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 Christina Hines | $1,211,489 | $1,053,292 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
