G
Forecasted Win Probability
William Lawrence
Tom Barrett
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| William Lawrence | 49.00% |
| Tom Barrett | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Barrett | 46.00% |
| Bridget Brink | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bridget Brink | 46.00% |
| Tom Barrett | 45.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Barrett | $6,306,828 | $3,457,356 | $51,234 | $6,377 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Tom Barrett | $6,180,398 | $3,245,468 | $51,234 | $6,377 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Tom Barrett | $5,033,612 | $2,236,973 | $51,234 | $6,377 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 William Lawrence | $1,119,198 | $736,082 | $400,158 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
