G
Forecasted Win Probability
Brad Finstad
Jake Johnson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brad Finstad | 52.00% |
| Jake Johnson | 42.00% |
| Other | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brad Finstad | 44.00% |
| Jake Johnson | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brad Finstad | $2,030,569 | $808,055 | - | $2,008 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Jacob Johnson | $2,000,547 | $988,953 | $2,051 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Brad Finstad | $1,916,146 | $766,751 | - | $807 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jacob Johnson | $1,872,308 | $915,083 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Brad Finstad | $1,372,247 | $599,942 | - | $807 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Jacob Johnson | $1,221,946 | $650,791 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
