G
Forecasted Win Probability
Peggy Flanagan
Michele Tafoya
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 50.00% |
| Michele Tafoya | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 46.00% |
| Michele Tafoya | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Rebecca Whiting | 1.00% |
| Marisa Simonetti | 1.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 51.00% |
| Michele Tafoya | 44.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Peggy Flanagan | $6,517,348 | $5,458,744 | $29,694 | $3,910,647 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Michelle Tafoya | $5,292,553 | $3,959,487 | $19,684 | $51,478 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Michelle Tafoya | $4,669,609 | $2,588,978 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Michelle Tafoya | $2,041,940 | $186,972 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
