G
Forecasted Win Probability
Kurt Alme
Seth Bodnar
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 53% fundamentals, 22% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Seth Bodnar | 46.00% |
| Kurt Alme | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 50.00% |
| Seth Bodnar | 45.00% |
| Kyle Austin | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 41.00% |
| Seth Bodnar | 27.00% |
| Alani Bankhead | 22.00% |
| Kyle Austin | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kurt Alme | $1,984,861 | $534,142 | $1,453,291 | $217,614 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Kurt Alme | $1,184,127 | $261,875 | $619,496 | $200,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Alani Bankhead | $58,829 | $37,011 | $3,227,576 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Alani Bankhead | $23,884 | $11,307 | $2,248,573 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
