G
Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Carey*
Don Leonard
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Carey | 37.00% |
| Don Leonard | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 20.00% |
| Brennan Barrington | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Carey | 45.00% |
| Don Leonard | 40.00% |
| Brennan Barrington | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Carey | 39.00% |
| Don Leonard | 36.00% |
| Other Option | 24.00% |
| Brennan Barrington | 2.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Carey | $3,299,679 | $1,404,260 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mike Carey | $2,567,314 | $1,206,609 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/15/2026 |
 Don Leonard | $606,658 | $354,256 | $4,558 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Don Leonard | $286,611 | $210,809 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/15/2026 |
