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Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Aug 28, 2:24 PM
Brian Fitzpatrick*
Bob Harvie
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 47.00% |
| Bob Harvie | 43.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 48.00% |
| Bob Harvie | 42.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bob Harvie | 41.00% |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 19.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Fitzpatrick | $6,734,931 | $4,801,927 | - | $46 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | $5,702,596 | $2,810,329 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
 Bob Harvie | $2,007,499 | $1,212,578 | - | $10,609 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Bob Harvie | $1,455,202 | $850,772 | - | $10,609 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
