G
Forecasted Win Probability
Russell Fry*
John Vincent
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Russell Fry | 41.00% |
| John Vincent | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 22.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russell Fry | $1,720,803 | $1,243,169 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Russell Fry | $1,584,042 | $1,187,907 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
 John Vincent | $297,264 | $234,885 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| John Vincent | $234,953 | $208,271 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/20/2026 |
