G
Forecasted Win Probability
Monica De La Cruz*
Bobby Pulido
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 50.00% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 51.00% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 45.00% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Monica De La Cruz | $5,273,960 | $3,424,607 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Monica De La Cruz | $4,240,747 | $2,520,271 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Bobby Pulido | $2,960,462 | $1,804,526 | $1,190,354 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Bobby Pulido | $1,620,305 | $1,217,311 | $1,180,096 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
