G
Forecasted Win Probability
James Talarico
Ken Paxton
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 32% fundamentals, 43% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Texas US Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | |||
 | |||
| Talarico | |||
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How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | $68,555,930 | $47,007,775 | $4,156,477 | $763,010 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| James Talarico | $40,284,109 | $30,425,244 | $4,110,179 | $563,010 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| Ken Paxton | $9,251,700 | $7,492,915 | $1,297,392 | $26,905,075 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ken Paxton | $7,605,209 | $5,257,746 | $502,244 | $19,891,820 | PRE-RUN-OFF | 5/6/2026 |
