G
Forecasted Win Probability
Rob Wittman
Shannon Taylor
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rob Wittman | 46.00% |
| Shannon Taylor | 42.00% |
| Other | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rob Wittman | 41.00% |
| Shannon Taylor | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 19.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rob Wittman | $4,053,142 | $1,136,232 | - | $4,086 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Mr. Robert J. Wittman | $4,016,190 | $1,122,239 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mr. Robert J. Wittman | $3,398,634 | $914,724 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Shannon Taylor | $2,140,980 | $1,136,753 | $34,512 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Shannon Taylor | $2,054,507 | $873,207 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Shannon Taylor | $1,300,040 | $477,785 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
