G
Forecasted Win Probability
John McGuire
Tom Perriello
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John McGuire | 47.00% |
| Tom Perriello | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Perriello | $2,140,402 | $629,110 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Thomas Perriello | $2,095,712 | $558,771 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 John McGuire | $1,740,534 | $1,243,407 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| John McGuire | $1,705,665 | $1,167,641 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Thomas Perriello | $1,402,032 | $282,395 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
