G
Forecasted Win Probability
Mark Warner
Bert Mizusawa
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mark Warner | 50.30% |
| Bert Mizusawa | 32.80% |
| Other Option | 13.70% |
| Mark Moran | 3.20% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mark Warner | 45.00% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 17.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mark Warner | $25,160,578 | $9,434,263 | $89 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Mark Warner | $24,923,005 | $9,156,701 | $89 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mark Warner | $21,990,910 | $7,774,286 | $89 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Bert Mizusawa | $376,213 | $323,249 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Bert Mizusawa | $341,219 | $289,799 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Bert Mizusawa | $192,041 | $136,636 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
