G
Forecasted Win Probability
Bryan Steil
Mitchell Berman
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bryan Steil | 49.00% |
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bryan Steil | 50.00% |
| Mitchell Berman | 41.00% |
| Other | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryan Steil | $5,467,777 | $1,359,849 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Bryan Steil | $5,302,289 | $1,344,045 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Bryan Steil | $4,376,365 | $1,031,408 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Mitchell Berman | $712,984 | $561,340 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Mitchell Berman | $653,922 | $433,240 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mitchell Berman | $426,672 | $286,071 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
